tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 10:29 IAD 11:55 18% 7% 4.3% 82%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 19:28 IAD 20:55 31% 22% 14.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 8h 01m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 55m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 18m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 25m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 7h 55m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 19m Chicago ORD 11:08 → IAD 14:08UA 1486 7h 58m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 7h 46m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 41m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:54 → IAH 10:17UA 2371 1h 56m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 8h 36m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:15 → CLT 20:33AA 1942 51m Charlotte CLT 21:24 → IAD 22:56AA 2608 4h 41m 65% 53%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:25 → ORD 18:17UA 1156 1h 23m Chicago ORD 19:40 → IAD 22:30UA 304 6h 05m 71% 52%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 52m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 5h 57m 61% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON