Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4451 LGA 08:55 → ILM 10:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4792 LGA 19:59 → ILM 22:01 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4451 Republic	LGA 08:55	ILM 10:56	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5186 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:00	ILM 10:45	6%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 5212 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 14:45	ILM 16:30	8%	3%	0.7%	73%
YX 4404 Republic	LGA 15:50	ILM 17:47	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5204 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 19:48	ILM 21:33	14%	5%	0.8%	62%
AA 4792 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:59	ILM 22:01	14%	5%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON