Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4387 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 4387 LGA 09:30 → IND 11:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5673 LGA 20:02 → IND 22:17 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4387 Republic	LGA 09:30	IND 11:45	11%	4%	1.6%	no record
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:45	IND 14:06	14%	7%	1.9%	85%
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:43	IND 17:13	19%	11%	2.9%	83%
DL 5635 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:42	IND 20:24	20%	13%	2.5%	74%
YX 4409 Republic	LGA 14:42	IND 17:04	22%	11%	3.2%	no record
AA 4458 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	IND 21:29	26%	16%	2.5%	75%
AA 4427 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:03	IND 21:05	28%	14%	2.2%	66%
YX 5673 Republic	LGA 20:02	IND 22:17	31%	15%	1.9%	no record
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:15	IND 10:30	15%	2%	4.2%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON