tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 13:09 → LAX 15:08DL 2974 10h 13m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 12m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 10h 17m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:30 → DFW 12:09DL 856 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:00 → LAX 17:23DL 521 10h 53m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:45 → DEN 09:53DL 751 2h 36m Denver DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148 9h 11m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:55 → FLL 13:54DL 1181 3h 43m Fort Lauderdale FLL 17:37 → LAX 20:11DL 573 12h 16m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:59 → MIA 18:30DL 2300 47m Miami MIA 19:17 → LAX 21:49DL 450 9h 50m 61% 49%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 50m Chicago ORD 18:10 → LAX 20:42UA 1967 8h 17m 59% 42%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:00 → BOS 19:40DL 5738 · flown by Republic 59m Boston BOS 20:39 → LAX 00:03 +1DL 610 9h 03m 57% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON