Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1164 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 699 LGA 18:19 → MCO 20:56 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	6%	2%	1.4%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	6%	3%	1.3%	89%
AA 3038 American	LGA 07:43	MCO 10:32	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	14%	5%	1.6%	80%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	15%	6%	1.8%	65%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 15:08	MCO 18:00	23%	10%	2.0%	67%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	23%	11%	1.7%	62%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	24%	12%	1.6%	68%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	26%	12%	1.7%	59%
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:19	MCO 20:56	32%	21%	2.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON