Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2411 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2411 LGA 06:14 → MDW 07:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3058 LGA 16:11 → MDW 17:19 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2411 Southwest	LGA 06:14	MDW 07:22	8%	1%	3.4%	no record
WN 2412 Southwest	LGA 07:44	MDW 08:58	12%	2%	3.6%	no record
WN 487 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 11:00	MDW 12:09	23%	5%	3.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 2414 Southwest	LGA 13:24	MDW 14:33	30%	10%	4.5%	no record
WN 2714 Southwest	LGA 21:34	MDW 22:43	34%	12%	2.3%	no record
WN 4741 Southwest	LGA 17:39	MDW 18:48	37%	14%	2.6%	no record
WN 3058 Southwest	LGA 16:11	MDW 17:19	39%	10%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON