Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 4903 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 4903 LGA 08:59 → MEM 10:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 5606 LGA 19:47 → MEM 21:31 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 08:59	MEM 10:40	6%	2%	0.7%	82%
YX 5605 Republic	LGA 13:36	MEM 15:21	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:09	MEM 14:02	9%	2%	0.7%	78%
AA 4696 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:17	MEM 22:11	16%	5%	0.7%	64%
DL 5606 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:47	MEM 21:31	19%	5%	0.7%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON