Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3088 LGA 18:40 → MIA 21:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1249 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MIA 09:15	4%	2%	1.4%	94%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	MIA 10:19	7%	3%	1.4%	89%
AA 1530 American Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MIA 10:15	8%	3%	1.3%	88%
AA 970 American Flight history →	LGA 07:59	MIA 11:14	10%	3%	1.4%	86%
AA 3211 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	MIA 12:45	15%	4%	1.7%	76%
AA 2378 American	LGA 11:04	MIA 14:11	17%	7%	1.7%	no record
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	MIA 14:24	19%	6%	1.7%	77%
AA 605 American Flight history →	LGA 13:13	MIA 16:19	24%	10%	2.4%	68%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MIA 23:22	28%	20%	2.1%	59%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:59	MIA 18:30	28%	14%	2.3%	63%
AA 2525 American	LGA 15:37	MIA 18:44	28%	14%	2.4%	no record
AA 3135 American Flight history →	LGA 17:13	MIA 20:27	32%	17%	2.8%	63%
AA 845 American	LGA 20:43	MIA 23:21	32%	17%	2.4%	no record
DL 1620 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:50	MIA 21:21	33%	19%	2.2%	58%
AA 3088 American Flight history →	LGA 18:40	MIA 21:55	35%	18%	3.6%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON