Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5624 LGA 12:55 → MSN 14:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5611 LGA 17:37 → MSN 19:12 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5624 Republic	LGA 12:55	MSN 14:29	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
YX 4338 Republic	LGA 18:27	MSN 20:07	19%	7%	1.2%	no record
DL 5611 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:37	MSN 19:12	21%	7%	1.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON