tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 10h 02m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 58m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 30m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 10h 55m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:59 → ATL 15:26DL 994 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 10h 50m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → LGA 13:08 → DFW 15:58AA 1609 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:53 → ONT 20:15AA 2147 10h 07m 94% 71%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → DFW 19:15AA 1608 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → ONT 22:39AA 1695 9h 39m 92% 68%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 2h 58m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 10h 26m 93% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON