Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 35 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2251 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 2251 LGA 06:00 → ORD 07:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2336 LGA 17:15 → ORD 18:35 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2251 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ORD 07:32	9%	3%	2.3%	93%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	LGA 06:10	ORD 07:49	11%	3%	1.8%	89%
AA 1427 American	LGA 06:01	ORD 07:32	13%	3%	3.1%	no record
AA 1263 American	LGA 06:49	ORD 08:10	14%	4%	3.0%	no record
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:45	ORD 10:23	16%	5%	2.2%	80%
AA 392 American Flight history →	LGA 07:23	ORD 09:09	18%	4%	3.1%	87%
UA 1008 United	LGA 07:29	ORD 08:55	20%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 2057 American Flight history →	LGA 21:29	ORD 23:30	20%	12%	3.1%	55%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:30	ORD 09:06	20%	6%	2.4%	81%
AA 2223 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	ORD 11:04	21%	7%	2.6%	88%
AA 855 American	LGA 10:41	ORD 12:17	23%	9%	2.7%	no record
UA 477 United	LGA 09:18	ORD 10:46	23%	7%	1.7%	no record
AA 386 American	LGA 12:36	ORD 14:09	24%	12%	3.3%	no record
UA 1310 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	ORD 11:57	25%	9%	1.7%	80%
AA 2841 American	LGA 21:40	ORD 23:17	25%	14%	3.1%	no record
UA 1967 United Flight history →	LGA 13:24	ORD 15:04	26%	13%	2.4%	74%
UA 1166 United	LGA 08:03	ORD 09:22	27%	6%	1.7%	no record
DL 2240 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:30	ORD 13:05	27%	11%	2.5%	74%
UA 2015 United	LGA 11:22	ORD 12:54	27%	10%	1.8%	no record
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ORD 19:10	31%	18%	2.7%	62%
UA 1504 United Flight history →	LGA 15:25	ORD 17:20	31%	18%	2.6%	61%
AA 1534 American	LGA 14:27	ORD 16:04	32%	14%	5.0%	no record
AA 396 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:08	33%	17%	4.6%	64%
DL 2806 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:45	ORD 22:36	33%	21%	2.6%	59%
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:45	ORD 16:30	34%	17%	3.2%	64%
DL 2513 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	ORD 20:56	35%	21%	3.0%	57%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:03	35%	18%	3.4%	66%
AA 1795 American Flight history →	LGA 18:12	ORD 19:59	35%	20%	3.6%	38%
UA 775 United	LGA 21:36	ORD 22:55	37%	16%	1.5%	no record
UA 2768 United Flight history →	LGA 20:25	ORD 22:12	38%	18%	1.8%	47%
UA 8142 United	LGA 14:27	ORD 16:04	39%	14%	3.2%	no record
UA 1156 United Flight history →	LGA 16:25	ORD 18:17	40%	19%	2.7%	53%
UA 1582 United Flight history →	LGA 19:33	ORD 21:02	40%	18%	1.8%	60%
UA 598 United Flight history →	LGA 18:32	ORD 20:02	45%	22%	2.1%	41%
UA 2336 United	LGA 17:15	ORD 18:35	45%	19%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON