Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5786 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 5786 LGA 08:09 → PIT 09:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 5787 LGA 18:58 → PIT 20:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5786 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:09	PIT 09:46	7%	3%	1.3%	84%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:13	PIT 09:51	7%	3%	1.3%	83%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:38	PIT 12:16	12%	4%	2.2%	86%
AA 4410 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:12	PIT 11:56	12%	5%	2.3%	69%
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:10	PIT 14:47	13%	8%	3.0%	87%
DL 5722 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:20	PIT 23:09	14%	8%	1.5%	72%
YX 4538 Republic	LGA 14:20	PIT 15:53	15%	8%	3.1%	no record
AA 4579 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:33	PIT 20:10	20%	10%	2.3%	82%
DL 5787 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:58	PIT 20:34	20%	11%	2.3%	100%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON