Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4571 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4571 LGA 09:03 → PWM 10:37 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest YX 5825 LGA 21:58 → PWM 23:29 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4571 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:03	PWM 10:37	10%	4%	2.1%	79%
YX 5803 Republic	LGA 15:25	PWM 16:56	20%	12%	3.0%	no record
AA 2700 American	LGA 14:41	PWM 16:06	20%	10%	2.8%	no record
YX 5825 Republic	LGA 21:58	PWM 23:29	20%	11%	2.9%	no record
DL 5361 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:50	PWM 10:22	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
DL 5346 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:00	PWM 12:32	20%	7%	2.4%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON