tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Hebron, leaving 08:25, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:25 → CVG 10:33DL 5016 · flown by Endeavor 2h 33m Hebron CVG 13:06 → SFO 14:49DL 860 9h 24m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 8h 55m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 02m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 23:49DL 656 10h 49m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:38 → IAH 18:46UA 1794 3h 13m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 11h 27m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823 10h 49m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 10h 58m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:38 → IAH 18:46UA 1794 48m Houston IAH 19:34 → SFO 21:43UA 1202 9h 05m 65% 52%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:12 → ORD 19:59AA 1795 1h 06m Chicago ORD 21:05 → SFO 23:43AA 3202 8h 31m 67% 45%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396 55m Chicago ORD 19:03 → SFO 22:03AA 2856 9h 03m 63% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON