tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 49m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 10h 24m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:00 → DEN 12:20UA 716 3h 35m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 10h 35m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 18m Chicago ORD 09:07 → SJC 11:28UA 307 8h 18m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087 8h 40m 86% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → DFW 19:15AA 1608 1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:09 → SJC 23:34AA 364 10h 34m 91% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:22 → DFW 20:06AA 2327 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:09 → SJC 23:34AA 364 9h 12m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON