tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 1h 30m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 00m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:30 → DFW 10:23AA 3289 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:23 → SNA 15:46AA 2659 11h 16m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 10h 25m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 01m Houston IAH 20:02 → SNA 21:39UA 326 10h 39m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LGA 08:35 → DFW 11:25AA 1987 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:38 → SNA 14:50AA 2465 9h 15m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → SNA 12:45AA 1933 9h 15m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:56 → SNA 14:27AA 1916 10h 04m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON