tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 10:28, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:28 SRQ 13:33 13% 3% 2.3% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:24DL 3115 7h 24m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:59 → ATL 15:26DL 994 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:56DL 3109 6h 57m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 21m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 02m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 11:00 → MDW 12:09WN 487 1h 35m Chicago MDW 13:44 → SRQ 17:20WN 250 6h 20m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 10:27 → SRQ 12:28AA 1452 6h 28m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:06AA 2604 6h 35m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:27 → DCA 07:57AA 4487 · flown by Republic 53m Washington DCA 08:50 → SRQ 11:48AA 2584 5h 21m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:40 → MIA 21:54AA 3088 1h 00m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 19m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON