Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4495 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 4495 LGA 07:14 → STL 08:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4728 LGA 18:59 → STL 20:55 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4495 Southwest	LGA 07:14	STL 08:40	6%	2%	1.3%	no record
YX 4340 Republic	LGA 07:03	STL 08:44	10%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 1168 Southwest	LGA 12:11	STL 13:38	16%	4%	1.8%	no record
YX 4449 Republic	LGA 14:23	STL 16:16	21%	10%	3.4%	no record
WN 4432 Southwest	LGA 15:18	STL 16:45	23%	8%	2.2%	no record
WN 1740 Southwest	LGA 17:49	STL 19:16	27%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 4728 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	STL 20:55	29%	13%	2.6%	67%
DL 4939 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 06:30	STL 08:08	11%	6%	2.9%	89%
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:00	STL 11:47	20%	7%	3.2%	80%
DL 4926 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:51	STL 20:46	30%	14%	9.5%	70%
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:59	STL 15:50	35%	15%	7.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON