Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4605 LGA 11:08 → TUL 13:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4630 LGA 16:50 → TUL 19:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4605 Republic	LGA 11:08	TUL 13:32	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4341 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:29	TUL 22:08	13%	6%	0.7%	67%
DL 4630 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 16:50	TUL 19:04	15%	5%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON