Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4983 LGA 09:07 → TYS 11:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 5003 LGA 19:58 → TYS 21:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4983 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:07	TYS 11:04	5%	2%	0.8%	82%
YX 4432 Republic	LGA 11:03	TYS 13:25	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5455 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 13:27	TYS 15:24	7%	3%	0.8%	72%
DL 5003 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 19:58	TYS 21:58	13%	4%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON