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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:43 → VPS 11:01DL 2048 6h 01m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:59 → ATL 15:26DL 994 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 6h 43m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 7h 29m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 7h 00m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 17:14 → VPS 17:55AA 2197 6h 45m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:02 → DFW 08:34AA 1597 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 6h 26m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:35 → DFW 10:04AA 1987 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → VPS 15:20AA 2501 8h 45m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON