Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2425 at 09:09, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2425 Southwest	LGB 09:09	AUS 13:59	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	1h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	6h 30m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	LGB 11:15 → DEN 14:26WN 4966	1h 23m Denver	DEN 15:49 → AUS 18:57WN 4732	5h 42m	92%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON