Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 834 LGB 07:08 → LAS 08:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1266 LGB 14:02 → LAS 15:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 834 Southwest	LGB 07:08	LAS 08:14	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4183 Southwest	LGB 16:51	LAS 17:58	11%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 4182 Southwest	LGB 10:25	LAS 11:32	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2433 Southwest	LGB 12:28	LAS 13:36	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1266 Southwest	LGB 14:02	LAS 15:08	14%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON