Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1169 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1169 LGB 06:57 → SLC 09:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 745 LGB 17:01 → SLC 19:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1169 Delta	LGB 06:57	SLC 09:48	6%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 144 SkyWest	LGB 16:45	SLC 19:43	8%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 1116 Delta Flight history →	LGB 13:00	SLC 15:49	10%	5%	0.7%	87%
WN 745 Southwest	LGB 17:01	SLC 19:50	18%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON