Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 1120 at 17:02, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 1120 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:02	KOA 17:55	19%	4%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 23m Honolulu	HNL 07:59 → KOA 09:01AS 1048	3h 01m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014	1h 20m Honolulu	HNL 09:08 → KOA 10:10AS 1068	2h 58m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:47 → HNL 12:40AS 1074	3h 56m Honolulu	HNL 16:36 → KOA 17:34AS 1168	5h 47m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 05m Honolulu	HNL 11:04 → KOA 12:06AS 1088	3h 44m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:53 → OGG 11:01AS 1150	3h 02m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	4h 46m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:55 → HNL 09:48AS 1034	1h 47m Honolulu	HNL 11:35 → KOA 12:37AS 1098	3h 42m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 05m Honolulu	HNL 13:29 → KOA 14:31AS 1128	4h 45m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 13:27 → HNL 14:20AS 1094	3h 13m Honolulu	HNL 17:33 → KOA 18:31AS 1178	5h 04m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:16 → HNL 11:09AS 1054	52m Honolulu	HNL 12:01 → KOA 13:03AS 1108	2h 47m	54%	40%
Alaska Details →	LIH 13:27 → HNL 14:20AS 1094	48m Honolulu	HNL 15:08 → KOA 16:06AS 1158	2h 39m	49%	37%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:47 → HNL 12:40AS 1074	49m Honolulu	HNL 13:29 → KOA 14:31AS 1128	2h 44m	44%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON