Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2462 Southwest	LIH 20:22	LAS 05:07	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 19:14 → HNL 20:03AS 1154	3h 17m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808	9h 49m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 19m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:58 → HNL 11:51AS 1064	3h 18m Honolulu	HNL 15:09 → LAS 23:47AS 818	9h 49m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 13:27 → HNL 14:20AS 1094	49m Honolulu	HNL 15:09 → LAS 23:47AS 818	7h 20m	51%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON