Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 435 at 20:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 435 LIH 20:31 → LAX 05:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 964 LIH 12:35 → LAX 21:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 435 Delta Flight history →	LIH 20:31	LAX 05:00	9%	5%	0.8%	92%
UA 1296 United Flight history →	LIH 13:01	LAX 21:40	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 266 American Flight history →	LIH 13:19	LAX 22:00	17%	4%	0.7%	84%
AS 964 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:35	LAX 21:07	22%	4%	0.8%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	2h 01m Kahului	OGG 12:17 → LAX 20:33AS 981	8h 06m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:55 → HNL 09:48AS 1034	1h 56m Honolulu	HNL 11:44 → LAX 20:05AS 826	8h 10m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	1h 56m Honolulu	HNL 10:55 → LAX 19:17AS 878	7h 55m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON