Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2463 LIH 21:30 → OAK 05:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 968 LIH 12:40 → OAK 21:02 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2463 Southwest	LIH 21:30	OAK 05:40	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 274 Southwest	LIH 12:13	OAK 20:19	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 968 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:40	OAK 21:02	15%	3%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:02AS 1150	1h 14m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → OAK 20:16AS 924	7h 22m	92%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:17 → HNL 11:10AS 1054	1h 30m Honolulu	HNL 12:40 → OAK 20:40AS 848	7h 23m	90%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON