Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2593 at 13:28 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2593 LIH 13:28 → OGG 14:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1260 LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2593 Southwest	LIH 13:28	OGG 14:38	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2464 Southwest	LIH 13:37	OGG 14:40	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 1150 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:53	OGG 11:01	16%	2%	0.6%	87%
AS 1040 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:27	OGG 10:16	18%	2%	0.6%	91%
AS 1260 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 14:30	OGG 15:19	24%	3%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON