Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:27, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 974 Alaska	LIH 11:24	PDX 20:00	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 901 Alaska	LIH 12:21	PDX 21:03	18%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	1h 06m Kahului	OGG 11:22 → PDX 19:38AS 480	7h 11m	89%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:34 → HNL 18:11AS 1134	3h 41m Honolulu	HNL 21:52 → PDX 06:20 +1AS 961	9h 46m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 23m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 28m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON