Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:55, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 684 American Flight history →	LIH 21:15	PHX 06:20	15%	6%	0.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 51m Honolulu	HNL 11:50 → PHX 20:46AS 836	9h 24m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	1h 35m San Diego	SAN 20:59 → PHX 22:14AS 1707	8h 28m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON