Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:54, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:02AS 1150	2h 51m Kahului	OGG 13:53 → SMF 22:02AS 960	9h 08m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 12m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:18AS 820	8h 56m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:17 → HNL 11:10AS 1054	1h 01m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:18AS 820	7h 01m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON