Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2865 at 13:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2865 LIT 13:56 → DEN 15:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5429 LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2865 Southwest	LIT 13:56	DEN 15:14	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 4686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 13:33	DEN 15:00	6%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 1910 United	LIT 08:54	DEN 10:17	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 5429 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 16:39	DEN 18:25	15%	3%	0.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON