Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4049 LIT 05:42 → DFW 07:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OH 5615 LIT 16:02 → DFW 17:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4049 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 05:42	DFW 07:00	5%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:38	DFW 15:05	7%	3%	0.7%	68%
AA 3641 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 09:11	DFW 10:38	7%	3%	0.7%	79%
MQ 3520 Envoy	LIT 18:23	DFW 20:14	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3589 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:25	DFW 09:04	8%	3%	0.7%	77%
MQ 3505 Envoy	LIT 18:44	DFW 20:11	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
OH 5599 PSA	LIT 11:41	DFW 13:07	9%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	LIT 16:02	DFW 17:28	14%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON