Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3997 at 09:58, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3997 Southwest	LIT 09:58	LAS 11:17	4%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659	10h 02m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 35m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:50DL 919	10h 00m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	LIT 17:54 → SLC 20:16DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662	7h 46m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:05 → LAS 23:28DL 834	9h 29m	99%	88%
American Details →	LIT 08:29 → PHX 09:57AA 4323 · flown by Envoy	3h 40m Phoenix	PHX 13:37 → LAS 14:57AA 2631	8h 28m	100%	88%
American Details →	LIT 05:42 → DFW 07:00AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → LAS 09:53AA 1550	6h 11m	98%	87%
United Details →	LIT 07:34 → ORD 09:43UA 4528 · flown by GoJet	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 13:42 → LAS 15:39UA 704	10h 05m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON