Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 4323 at 08:29, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4323 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 08:29	PHX 09:57	7%	2%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	7h 47m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LIT 17:53 → SLC 20:16DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	7h 38m	100%	89%
American Details →	LIT 05:42 → DFW 07:00AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:53AA 2315	7h 11m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 38m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 51m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → PHX 21:45DL 929	7h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → PHX 18:53DL 836	9h 03m	99%	85%
American Details →	LIT 07:25 → DFW 09:04AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:28 → PHX 11:07AA 2905	5h 42m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON