Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 4052 at 17:53, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4052 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 17:53	SLC 20:16	4%	3%	0.6%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	9h 25m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 12m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 51m	100%	90%
United Details →	LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	7h 05m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	9h 27m	100%	87%
American Details →	LIT 05:42 → DFW 07:00AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → SLC 10:54AA 1878	6h 12m	98%	87%
United Details →	LIT 07:34 → ORD 09:43UA 4528 · flown by GoJet	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	8h 48m	98%	85%
American Details →	LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:10 → SLC 12:33AA 3258	7h 02m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON