tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:43 → AUS 10:57AA 3054 5h 57m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MAF 05:00 → IAH 06:37UA 6351 · flown by Mesa 3h 38m Houston IAH 10:15 → AUS 11:19UA 1823 6h 19m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MAF 17:13 → IAH 18:55UA 4001 · flown by Mesa 3h 20m Houston IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179 5h 59m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MAF 07:32 → DEN 08:49UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 5h 48m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa 3h 08m Houston IAH 14:23 → AUS 15:30UA 2483 5h 53m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → MAF 08:07 → DFW 09:38AA 3352 · flown by Envoy 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:30 → AUS 13:41AA 1852 5h 34m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MAF 14:15 → IAH 15:57UA 4061 · flown by Mesa 2h 53m Houston IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57UA 2674 5h 42m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MAF 11:57 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa 2h 43m Houston IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711 5h 30m 97% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON