Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4075 MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3653 MAF 17:30 → DFW 19:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4075 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 05:00	DFW 06:20	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
MQ 3698 Envoy	MAF 06:07	DFW 07:38	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:09	DFW 08:43	8%	6%	0.7%	90%
AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 10:31	DFW 12:01	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 3352 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 08:07	DFW 09:38	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
MQ 3511 Envoy	MAF 11:57	DFW 13:24	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3512 Envoy	MAF 14:30	DFW 16:01	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6199 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 18:16	DFW 19:41	14%	5%	0.7%	60%
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 17:30	DFW 19:04	15%	4%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON