Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 205 at 07:24, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 205 Southwest	MAF 07:24	LAS 07:44	2%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → LAS 09:54AA 1550	6h 54m	100%	89%
United Details →	MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 00m	98%	87%
United Details →	MAF 07:32 → DEN 08:49UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 52m	95%	86%
United Details →	MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Denver	DEN 16:06 → LAS 17:14UA 2424	5h 29m	95%	84%
American Details →	MAF 10:31 → DFW 12:01AA 3643 · flown by Envoy	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:20 → LAS 16:25AA 1573	7h 54m	100%	83%
United Details →	MAF 14:15 → IAH 15:57UA 4061 · flown by Mesa	2h 42m Houston	IAH 18:39 → LAS 19:57UA 2406	7h 42m	97%	83%
American Details →	MAF 09:20 → PHX 09:23AA 4939 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 11:08 → LAS 12:35AA 457	5h 15m	91%	83%
United Details →	MAF 11:57 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa	3h 12m Houston	IAH 16:49 → LAS 18:08UA 2190	8h 11m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON