tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4939 at 09:20, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4939 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → MAF 09:20 PHX 09:23 14% 6% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MAF 06:03 → DFW 07:28AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315 6h 51m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → MAF 05:03 → IAH 06:44UA 6351 · flown by Mesa 2h 56m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 31m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → MAF 08:03 → DFW 09:34AA 3352 · flown by Envoy 1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → PHX 12:05AA 359 6h 02m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MAF 14:14 → IAH 16:08UA 4061 · flown by Mesa 3h 45m Houston IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078 8h 28m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MAF 07:35 → DEN 08:52UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 09:54 → PHX 10:57UA 1782 5h 22m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → MAF 09:35 → IAH 11:29UA 6260 · flown by Mesa 2h 55m Houston IAH 14:24 → PHX 15:23UA 1798 7h 48m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Denver DEN 18:24 → PHX 19:27UA 1507 7h 42m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MAF 07:10 → DFW 08:43AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:31 → PHX 13:15AA 336 8h 05m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON