Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2807 MCI 09:44 → ATL 12:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1660 MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2807 Southwest	MCI 09:44	ATL 12:57	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1204 Delta Flight history →	MCI 05:39	ATL 08:43	2%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 1212 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:00	ATL 10:03	3%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 3110 Delta Flight history →	MCI 08:00	ATL 11:01	3%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 2471 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:43	ATL 13:47	3%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	MCI 12:16	ATL 15:23	4%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	MCI 13:18	ATL 16:26	5%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history →	MCI 15:38	ATL 18:48	5%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	MCI 17:40	ATL 20:54	6%	2%	0.5%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON