Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2480 MCI 07:36 → BNA 09:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2485 MCI 16:11 → BNA 17:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 3% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2480 Southwest	MCI 07:36	BNA 09:13	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2484 Southwest	MCI 10:06	BNA 11:43	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2164 Southwest	MCI 12:19	BNA 13:55	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 1383 Southwest	MCI 13:29	BNA 15:05	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2485 Southwest	MCI 16:11	BNA 17:47	6%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON