Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1297 MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1619 MCI 14:55 → CLT 18:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1297 American Flight history →	MCI 06:31	CLT 10:00	4%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 1003 American Flight history →	MCI 07:46	CLT 11:12	5%	3%	0.6%	66%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	MCI 11:00	CLT 14:23	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	MCI 14:55	CLT 18:18	10%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON