Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2722 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2722 MCI 07:47 → DCA 11:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5472 MCI 16:26 → DCA 20:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2722 Southwest	MCI 07:47	DCA 11:22	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
OH 5644 PSA	MCI 06:26	DCA 10:02	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2853 American	MCI 10:05	DCA 14:04	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2344 Southwest	MCI 12:35	DCA 16:10	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2974 Southwest	MCI 18:15	DCA 21:48	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
OH 5472 PSA	MCI 16:26	DCA 20:05	16%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON