Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 355 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 355 MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1737 MCI 17:22 → DEN 18:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 355 United Flight history →	MCI 06:00	DEN 06:56	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 1282 Southwest	MCI 07:21	DEN 08:05	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 4761 SkyWest	MCI 11:38	DEN 12:55	7%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 849 Southwest	MCI 11:14	DEN 11:58	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2495 Southwest	MCI 12:41	DEN 13:25	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5684 SkyWest	MCI 19:15	DEN 20:18	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 708 United Flight history →	MCI 13:40	DEN 14:35	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 549 Southwest	MCI 09:46	DEN 10:30	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1384 United Flight history →	MCI 08:58	DEN 10:10	12%	3%	0.6%	66%
WN 3401 Southwest	MCI 16:34	DEN 17:20	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2501 Southwest	MCI 19:01	DEN 19:54	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4827 Frontier	MCI 20:24	DEN 21:35	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 338 Southwest	MCI 17:54	DEN 18:39	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1737 United	MCI 17:22	DEN 18:31	17%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON