Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1098 MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3030 MCI 20:39 → DFW 22:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1098 American Flight history →	MCI 05:31	DFW 07:23	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 1261 American Flight history →	MCI 06:45	DFW 08:44	7%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 1582 American	MCI 07:57	DFW 09:48	10%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3471 Envoy	MCI 14:33	DFW 16:23	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2430 American	MCI 09:50	DFW 11:37	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3331 American Flight history →	MCI 11:21	DFW 13:05	13%	6%	0.8%	64%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	MCI 12:50	DFW 14:41	14%	6%	0.8%	74%
AA 3030 American Flight history →	MCI 20:39	DFW 22:32	16%	8%	1.3%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON