Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3546 Republic	MCI 17:51	IAD 21:47	10%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 1572 United	MCI 11:46	IAD 15:28	11%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	7h 22m	100%	89%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	1h 04m Denver	DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101	6h 26m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	7h 51m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	6h 38m	99%	85%
United Details →	MCI 08:58 → DEN 10:10UA 1384	2h 16m Denver	DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853	8h 00m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 01m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	7h 46m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON