Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5262 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MCI 12:39	JFK 16:38	10%	4%	0.7%	86%
AS 24 Alaska	MCI 15:29	JFK 19:19	18%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 41m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	8h 29m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	51m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	4h 33m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 13m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	8h 17m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	6h 57m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 42m	99%	86%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 11:40 → JFK 13:36AA 374	6h 05m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON