Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2599 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2599 MCI 06:10 → LGA 10:06 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2980 MCI 18:04 → LGA 21:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2599 Southwest	MCI 06:10	LGA 10:06	7%	2%	1.5%	no record
DL 370 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:00	LGA 09:50	7%	3%	1.9%	89%
DL 572 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:40	LGA 14:32	20%	11%	2.9%	84%
WN 3231 Southwest	MCI 12:02	LGA 15:58	22%	10%	1.4%	no record
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:55	LGA 22:46	28%	15%	1.9%	75%
WN 2980 Southwest	MCI 18:04	LGA 21:59	29%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON